Overview
- The Dec. 2 report links falling fertility and longer lifespans to a lasting gap between revenues and age‑related spending on pensions, health care and long‑term care.
- Demographers project the population to peak near 70 million in the 2040s before slipping to about 68 million by 2070, with the 20–64 workforce shrinking from 38 million in 2024 to 34.6 million in 2070.
- Aging‑sensitive outlays already exceed 40% of public spending after an 11‑point rise since 1998, and total public spending could reach 60.8% of GDP by 2070 if per‑age spending stays unchanged.
- The court urges higher labour‑force participation, especially among people aged 60 to 70 who can continue working, and stresses that the retirement transition age strongly influences fiscal balance.
- Leaders are asked to choose financing mixes—taxes or contributions, inter‑ or intragenerational solidarity, public or private provision—while recognizing immigration is no cure‑all and that delaying action will make adjustments harsher ahead of the 2027 campaign.