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France’s 2026 Budget Review Opens in Parliament Without 49.3

Markets watch closely following an S&P downgrade of France’s rating.

Overview

  • The finance committee began scrutinizing the revenue section on Monday with roughly 1,500–1,800 amendments and a 70‑day deadline that points to a Nov. 4 vote on the first part and a Dec. 23 cutoff for the overall text.
  • Lawmakers quickly adopted cross‑party changes, including extending the minimum tax on very high incomes until the deficit falls below 3% of GDP, easing the income‑tax freeze by indexing only the first bracket, and measures on child support deductibility and a cap on a journalists’ abatement.
  • The government is aiming for a 2026 deficit near 4.7% of GDP via about €30 billion in combined revenues and savings, with stated flexibility to keep the shortfall under 5%.
  • The Socialists withheld censure after a pledge to table in November a pension‑reform suspension via the Social Security budget, though Senate leaders signal firm opposition and the process carries the risk of resorting to ordonnances if deadlines are missed.
  • Fault lines span left‑proposed wealth taxes such as the Zucman plan, contested savings like a benefits freeze and higher medical co‑pays, and changes to student housing aid for some non‑EU students, as the executive presses for compromises under heightened market scrutiny.