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France’s 2026 Budget Returns to the Assembly as 49.3 Looms After Renewed Talks

As the Socialists refuse to vote for the text, officials now view Article 49.3 as the most likely route to enactment.

Overview

  • The budget is back in the Finance Committee from Thursday to Saturday, with a plenary debate slated to start around January 13 and more than 2,000 amendments filed.
  • After a four‑hour meeting at Bercy with the presidential camp, the PS and parts of the right, the government reaffirmed the goal of cutting the 2026 deficit to 5% of GDP.
  • Following December’s failed cross‑chamber compromise, a special law rolled 2025 tax rules into 2026, leaving the deficit closer to 5.4% and heightening pressure to pass a full budget this month.
  • Support remains elusive as EELV and the PCF declined talks, the RN and LFI are set against the text, and the PS says it will at best abstain, making 49.3 increasingly likely; the ordinance route is also floated but criticized by the PS.
  • Key bargaining items include a revived surtax on large‑company profits—backed by ministers and courted by the PS—plus disputes over income‑tax indexation and planned teacher staffing cuts, while LR advances its own savings and revenue plan and unveils a broader economic platform.