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France Sets 3–4 Year War Readiness, Signals Willingness to Deploy Forces to Ukraine

Military leaders now name Russia as the driving threat, prompting a push to deter escalation.

Overview

  • Army chief Pierre Schill told lawmakers on October 23 that France stands ready to deploy forces to Ukraine under security guarantees, with about 7,000 troops on alert from 12 hours to five days and a major Orion 26 exercise planned for next year.
  • Armed Forces chief Fabien Mandon set a primary objective for the military to be ready for a potential “shock” within three to four years, arguing Moscow could seek to extend its war on the European continent.
  • The 2026 draft defense budget rises 13% to €57.1 billion, or roughly 2.2% of GDP, alongside plans to boost munitions and training, begin large drone deliveries in 2026, and expand the reserve to 47,000 by year-end and 105,000 by 2035.
  • French commanders cite recent drone incursions and Russian fighter overflights in NATO airspace as examples of heightened risk and potential miscalculation, echoing German intelligence warnings of a possible RussiaNATO clash before 2029.
  • The Russian embassy in Paris publicly rejected any intention to attack France or the EU, labeling French military statements exaggerated and insisting such threats do not exist now or in the coming years.