Particle.news
Download on the App Store

France on Track for New Postwar Low in Births in 2025, Raising Risk of First Natural Decline Since 1944

Demographers trace the downturn to reduced fertility shaped by financial strain, housing insecurity, job instability plus childcare gaps rather than waning desire for children.

Overview

  • Provisional Insee data show average daily births down 2.4% in January–November 2025, totaling about 590,000 babies, including roughly 51,000 in November.
  • Deaths rose 1.4% over January–October 2025, and statisticians say the year could end with deaths outnumbering births for the first time since 1944.
  • France’s fertility indicator fell to 1.62 children per woman in 2024 from 1.66 in 2023, extending a decline seen almost every year since 2011 aside from a brief 2021 rebound.
  • The government has introduced a paid birth leave of up to two months per parent, while Unaf and demographers call for broader moves on incomes, stable jobs, housing and childcare.
  • Insee will publish fuller 2025 demographic results on Tuesday, as policymakers gauge implications for pensions, elder care and school system planning.