Overview

• Lawmakers hold a no-confidence vote Monday that Bayrou is widely expected to lose, a result that would collapse the minority government.
• Bayrou’s push for roughly €44 billion in savings — including scrapping two public holidays and freezing spending — triggered broad opposition.
• Marine Le Pen’s National Rally and the Socialist Party have signaled they will vote against the prime minister, with Le Pen pressing for new elections.
• If the government falls, Macron must either appoint a new prime minister, call fresh parliamentary elections, or consider resignation, though he has vowed to serve out his term.
• French 10-year bond yields have climbed above Spain, Portugal and Greece and are edging toward Italy’s, while a ‘Bloquons tout’ nationwide action is planned for 10 September.