Overview

• Météo-France assigns a 50% probability to summer 2025 temperatures exceeding seasonal norms, with a 30% likelihood of average conditions and a 20% chance of cooler weather.
• Corsica has the highest regional risk of heat, with forecasters indicating a 60% probability of above-average summer temperatures there.
• Meteorologists warn that intermittent cooler episodes can still occur even if the overall season trends hotter due to shifting atmospheric patterns.
• Precipitation outlook remains unclear as climate models diverge on whether the summer will be drier or marked by isolated storms.
• Nearly two years of elevated global temperatures are putting pressure on seasonal forecasting accuracy and highlighting the influence of climate change on weather volatility.