Overview

• Lawmakers vote on Monday, with Prime Minister François Bayrou widely expected to lose the confidence motion and then tender his resignation.
• President Emmanuel Macron has ruled out a snap election and, according to officials, plans to install a new prime minister swiftly, aiming to do so before planned strikes on September 18.
• Bayrou’s 2026 austerity blueprint seeks roughly €43.8–44 billion in savings through pension freezes, healthcare cuts and scrapping two public holidays, citing debt near 114% of GDP and a 5.8% deficit.
• French borrowing costs have jumped to multiyear highs, with 30‑year yields above 4.5% and 10‑year near 3.6%, as Fitch prepares a September 12 review of the country’s credit rating.
• Protest actions are building, with a September 10 nationwide shutdown call by the Bloquons Tout movement and major union strikes on September 18 that could disrupt transport and public services.