Particle.news

Fragmented Peso Trading Deepens as Reserves Fall Below US$50 Billion

Reserves slipping below US$50 billion shrink the central bank's ability to supply dollars to markets, prompting higher country risk.

Overview

  • Market prices on Wednesday showed a split exchange-rate complex with the wholesale (mayorista) dollar at ARS 1,506.50, Banco Nación retail at ARS 1,530, the informal dólar blue at about ARS 1,560, MEP near ARS 1,530–1,532, and CCL around ARS 1,593–1,596.
  • The Banco Central de la República Argentina reported reserves fell from US$50,411m to US$49,953m and daily net dollar purchases have slowed sharply in September, making this the lowest monthly pace of BCRA buys in 2026.
  • Financial assets weakened as investors priced higher external risk, pushing Argentina's country-risk measure above 500 and pressuring sovereign bonds, ADRs and local equities.
  • Global factors are amplifying flows: market tools show a high probability of a 25 basis point Fed hike, and that prospect has encouraged investors to move toward safer assets and away from riskier Argentine positions.
  • Multiple official and parallel rates are creating real limits on currency access for households and firms because the mayorista, retail, tourist (official plus 30%) and informal channels move differently and cannot be freely arbitraged across the system.