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Fragile Israel-Iran Ceasefire Fuels Market Rally and Oil Retreat

The truce reduced supply-risk premiums in commodities markets even as central bankers maintained a cautious stance on monetary policy.

Overview

  • President Trump announced an end to the 12-day Israel-Iran air war, but both nations have reported ceasefire breaches, keeping tensions fragile.
  • Global equity benchmarks surged to record highs, with the S&P 500 and MSCI world index reaching all-time peaks on revived risk appetite.
  • Brent crude plunged over 6% to about $67 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate dipped below $65 before a modest recovery as supply-disruption fears eased.
  • The Indian rupee jumped 77 paise to 85.98 against the dollar on oil-price relief before giving up some gains as market uncertainty lingered.
  • Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told Congress that rate-cut decisions will hinge on incoming economic data, underscoring a patient policy approach.