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Fragile Israel-Iran Ceasefire Fuels Market Rally and Oil Retreat

The truce reduced supply-risk premiums in commodities markets even as central bankers maintained a cautious stance on monetary policy.

Bull statues are placed in font of screens showing the Hang Seng stock index and stock prices outside Exchange Square, in Hong Kong, China, August 18, 2023. REUTERS/Tyrone Siu
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Four thousand U.S. dollars are counted out by a banker counting currency at a bank in Westminster, Colorado November 3, 2009.  REUTERS/Rick Wilking/File Photo
The "Fearless Girl" statue stands in front of the New York Stock Exchange, Wednesday, June 18, 2025, in New York.

Overview

  • President Trump announced an end to the 12-day Israel-Iran air war, but both nations have reported ceasefire breaches, keeping tensions fragile.
  • Global equity benchmarks surged to record highs, with the S&P 500 and MSCI world index reaching all-time peaks on revived risk appetite.
  • Brent crude plunged over 6% to about $67 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate dipped below $65 before a modest recovery as supply-disruption fears eased.
  • The Indian rupee jumped 77 paise to 85.98 against the dollar on oil-price relief before giving up some gains as market uncertainty lingered.
  • Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told Congress that rate-cut decisions will hinge on incoming economic data, underscoring a patient policy approach.