Overview

• Sir Simon Case predicts the next two decades will see a rise in inter-state conflicts, urging the UK and Western allies to prepare for heightened global tensions.
• He advocates for diversifying the UK’s nuclear deterrent with land- and air-launched systems, moving beyond the current submarine-based approach.
• Case recommends raising defence spending to 3% of GDP as soon as possible, exceeding the government’s existing commitment to reach that level in the next parliament.
• The UK Government remains committed to increasing defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027, with further increases planned thereafter.
• Case’s warnings, given in his first major interview since stepping down as Cabinet Secretary in December 2024, come ahead of the UK’s Strategic Defence Review.