Overview

• General Sir Richard Shirreff’s op-ed sketches a hypothetical chain starting with a sabotage-driven power outage in Vilnius spreading across the Baltic states.
• In the scenario, Russia places Kaliningrad forces on alert, moves on the Suwalki Gap, and triggers a contested NATO Article 5 response.
• The narrative then shifts to the Pacific, where China launches a massive missile barrage on Taiwan to exploit Western distraction.
• The Daily Star alone attaches a specific start date of November 3, 2025, a claim not corroborated by other outlets.
• Analysts cited warn to watch for hybrid indicators such as troop movements in Kaliningrad and Belarus, snap drills, GPS jamming, undersea cable sabotage, and stoked unrest, while noting no public evidence the outlined assault is underway.