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Foreign Banks Lift China Growth Outlook After Q3 Data Show 4.8% Expansion

Forecast upgrades mask a recovery that remains constrained by structural weaknesses.

Overview

  • The National Bureau of Statistics reported 4.8% year-on-year growth in Q3, with January–September GDP up 5.2%.
  • Goldman Sachs lifted its 2025 forecast to 4.9% and said the around‑5% goal is largely on track, as other foreign banks also nudged up estimates.
  • September exports rose 8.3% from a year earlier even as shipments to the United States fell 27% for the month.
  • Beijing’s September support package—monetary easing and targeted housing measures—has yet to show clear effects, while the party plenum is outlining the next five‑year plan.
  • An NBS spokesperson blamed tariff escalation for a tougher external environment, and President Donald Trump has pledged a 100% tariff on all Chinese imports starting next month, with a Trump–Xi meeting scheduled at the APEC summit in Seoul.