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2h ago

Forecasts Warn of £100 Billion Annual UK Welfare Bill by 2030 as Government Secures PIP Protections

Rising cost projections of UK sickness and disability benefits triggered reforms to uprate Universal Credit above inflation, with safeguards for current PIP recipients

Disabled people and their supporters gather outside the Houses of Parliament for a protest against cuts to welfare benefits (Photo: Wiktor Szymanowicz/Future Publishing/Getty)
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Overview

  • The Department for Work and Pensions estimates the annual benefit bill for Personal Independence Payment and other sickness benefits will hit £100 billion by 2030, funded by the income tax of 8.95 million workers
  • Universal Credit’s standard allowance will permanently outpace inflation, rising to £725 in cash terms for a single over-25 claimant by 2029/30
  • New Universal Credit health top-ups for fresh claims will be cut to £50 per week from April 2026, while all existing recipients will keep the higher payment
  • A new four-point daily living activity threshold for PIP will apply only to applications from November 2026, with current claimants and their passported benefits such as Blue Badges fully protected
  • PIP awards will increase with next year’s CPI inflation and a co-produced review of the assessment process led by Sir Stephen Timms is set to conclude by Autumn 2026