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2mo ago

Forecasts Show Rapidly Intensifying El Niño Could Become Very Strong or Record‑Breaking

Forecasters warn the rapid build‑up could push global temperatures toward records, forcing governments to expand heat protections.

A drone view shows burnt trees in a forest affected by a wildfire, in Biscarrosse, Landes department, amid drought conditions, a new heatwave warning, and water shortages across much of France, July 28, 2026. REUTERS/Yves Herman
FILE - Maria del Carmen, left, her daughter Maria del Carmen Lopez, right, and her partner Mario Gonzalez, center, collect their belongings after their bungalows were ravaged by a wildfire at a campsite in Valle de Iruelas, Spain, July 30, 2026. (AP Photo/Manu Fernandez, File)
FILE - A usually submerged patch of land rises from the surface of the Danube River due to low levels of the water following an extended period of drought in Corabia, Romania, July 29, 2026. (AP Photo/ Nicolae Dumitrache, File)
Dry paddy fields await rainfall as a weak monsoon delays farmers from planting rice saplings, possibly linked to El Nino, during National Paddy Day, also called Asar Pandra, which symbolically marks the commencement of rice crop planting in the country, on the outskirts of Kathmandu, Nepal, June 29, 2026. REUTERS/Navesh Chitrakar

Overview

  • The World Meteorological Organization's July 31 update said multi‑model averages point to a strong El Niño with a Niño 3.4 seasonal anomaly near +2.9°C for August–October and a high chance it will persist into November.
  • Several leading models and national agencies, including Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology, project further warming later in the year with some runs approaching or exceeding +3°C and BOM noting possible Niño 3.5°C values by mid‑to‑late southern spring.
  • The WMO and UN say the event will raise the odds of above‑normal temperatures across most land areas, increasing risks of heatwaves, droughts, intense rainfall and wildfires in different regions.
  • Regional outlooks already point to hotter, drier conditions and higher bushfire risk for eastern and southern Australia and a weaker Indian monsoon with below‑normal rainfall for parts of South Asia.
  • Officials stress this El Niño is unfolding on top of very warm oceans from human‑driven warming, which can amplify global heat and compound hazards, so they are urging stepped‑up early warnings and preparedness measures.