Overview
- Advocacy forecasts now cluster near a mid‑3% increase, with AARP estimating about 3.5% and the Senior Citizens League about 3.6%, down from higher projections earlier in the summer.
- The SSA calculates the COLA by comparing the average Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI‑W) for July through September with the same period a year earlier.
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the September CPI on Wednesday, Oct. 14, which will allow the SSA to complete its calculation and announce the official 2027 COLA in October.
- A 3.5% COLA would add roughly $35 per $1,000 of monthly benefit, which equals about $72.95 more for the average retired worker before any Medicare or other deductions are taken out.
- Short‑term swings in energy prices — especially fuel oil — and any rise in Medicare Part B premiums are the main uncertainties that could change the final COLA and reduce its real benefit for retirees.