Overview

• The Storm Prediction Center reports scattered storms in western New Mexico and southeastern Arizona capable of large hail and severe gusts, with a 40% chance a watch could be issued.
• Mesoanalysis indicates deep-layer shear supportive of supercells in western New Mexico, including long, straight hodographs and a TBSS noted on KABX radar.
• Farther north across eastern Utah and western Colorado, storms are increasing but a watch is not expected, with the primary risks being small hail and gusty outflows.
• The Weather Prediction Center warns of isolated to widely scattered flash flooding in western Texas into southeastern New Mexico through 10Z, with 1–2 in/hr rates and localized 2–3+ inch totals.
• A strengthening low-level jet, rising to 30–35 kt at 04Z and forecast to reach 40–45 kt by 08Z, and +1 to +2 sigma PW anomalies are promoting training cells from the Texas Panhandle toward I-10 and eastward-moving storms in the Trans-Pecos.