Overview
- Cook Political Report moved 12 House races toward Democrats on Friday, Oct. 30, widening a map that could let Democrats pick up between 12 and 25 seats and reach as many as 240 seats.
- Nate Silver updated his model on Oct. 30 to give Democrats a 79% chance of taking the Senate, reflecting a string of strong polls in several battleground contests.
- Independent quantitative models and market prices show Republican odds of holding the Senate have fallen sharply, with one model putting that chance near the low double digits.
- Republican-aligned super PACs have cut or canceled planned ad buys in multiple districts, a tactical pullback that signals concern about vulnerable incumbents and shifts in resource priorities.
- About 40 million Americans have already voted early, making turnout patterns decisive on Election Day and leaving room for normal-sized polling errors or late swings in states such as Texas, Ohio, Alaska and Maine to change outcomes.