Overview
- Reuters’ December survey projects Brent at $61.27 a barrel and U.S. crude at $58.15 in 2026, both lower than prior estimates.
- Analysts in the poll expect a 2026 surplus of roughly 0.5 to 3.5 million barrels per day.
- OPEC+ left production unchanged over the weekend, a stance Oxford Economics says offers only limited support without resolving the surplus.
- EIA data show production exceeded consumption throughout 2025 with implied stock builds above 2.5 million barrels per day in the last two quarters, contributing to the year’s price decline.
- The poll predated the U.S. operation in Venezuela, and analysts including Goldman Sachs see only modest short-run price risks, with Russia-related sanctions also judged unlikely to materially tighten supply.