Overview
- Forecasters reported on Thursday that El Niño has rapidly strengthened and is very likely to peak in December with persistence through February to March 2027, and the US Climate Prediction Center put the chance of a strong‑to‑very‑strong event at more than 83%.
- The World Meteorological Organization and assessments from 13 national centres say October–December sea‑surface temperature anomalies could reach about 3.7°C above normal, which would exceed the 2015–16 peak of roughly 2.6°C.
- Those ocean changes drive shifts in the atmosphere that raise global temperatures and move the jet stream, which typically causes drought in some places and heavy rain or floods in others.
- Early effects are already being reported, including drought impacts in parts of Central America, higher coastal water levels and changes to the Atlantic hurricane season such as Isaias becoming the season’s first hurricane.
- Experts warn the timing and strength could hit food supplies, push up commodity prices and worsen public‑health outcomes, with one research estimate of up to 451,000 excess heat deaths through February 2027 and governments starting to mobilize responses.