Overview

• The season has produced three named storms—Andrea, Barry and Chantal—exceeding average pace even as accumulated cyclone energy sits at its weakest July start since 2009
• Remnants of Barry and Chantal triggered severe flooding in Texas Hill Country and North Carolina, underscoring flood threats from weaker systems
• Persistent wind shear, Saharan dust and cool upper-atmospheric temperatures have held back storm strength but are expected to relent in early August
• European model ensembles and emerging AI forecasts suggest a fast-moving tropical wave could develop into Tropical Storm Dexter around the first week of August
• NOAA’s preseason outlook still calls for 13 to 19 named storms and six to ten hurricanes, with peak activity typically arriving from August through October