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1h ago

Forecasters Call 2026 a Housing Reset as Rates Ease to Low-6% and Inventory Builds

Modest price gains at the national level contrast with projected declines in many Sun Belt and Western markets.

How will the housing market hold up in 2026?
Homes are seen on a canal in Cape Coral, Florida, on July 2, 2024. (Photo by OCTAVIO JONES / AFP) (Photo by OCTAVIO JONES/AFP via Getty Images)
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Overview

  • Mortgage rates are expected to settle in the low‑6% range in 2026 and remain above 6% across major forecasts.
  • Existing‑home sales are projected to tick up, from 4.13 million (Realtor.com, +1.7%) to 4.51 million (Bright MLS, +9%), with Zillow at 4.26 million (+4.3%).
  • Inventory is forecast to expand, with Bright MLS estimating an 11% rise to about 1.426 million listings, returning supply to above 2019 levels.
  • National home prices are seen rising slightly—roughly 0.9% to 2.2%—even as about 22 of the 100 largest cities are forecast to decline, led by several Florida metros.
  • Affordability is set to improve modestly, including a projected 1.3% drop in typical monthly payments and a sub‑30% share of median income, while single‑family starts are expected to be the weakest since 2019.