Overview
- Multiple late‑2025 outlooks project 30‑year mortgage rates holding in the low‑to‑mid 6% range through 2026, with inventory climbing roughly 10–11% and existing‑home sales edging higher from 2025 lows.
- National price growth is forecast to be modest — about 0.9% to 2.2% — while Realtor.com expects prices to fall in 22 of the 100 largest metros, led by several Florida markets such as Cape Coral–Fort Myers and North Port–Sarasota–Bradenton.
- Realtor.com estimates the typical monthly payment will dip about 1.3% in 2026, bringing the payment burden to roughly 29.3% of median income for a median‑priced home.
- Forecasts point to a two‑speed market, with firmer conditions in the Northeast, Midwest and AI‑linked Bay Area hubs, and cooler trends in parts of Florida, Texas, Seattle, Portland and Denver where supply has built and demand has softened.
- Analysts flag key risks to the outlook — including inflation, mortgage‑rate volatility, capital‑market shifts and policy changes — and note new single‑family starts are likely to be the weakest since 2019, limiting longer‑term supply.