Overview

• Rhodium Group calls the first seven months of the Trump administration and current Congress the most abrupt energy and climate policy shift in recent memory.
• In its pessimistic pathway, emissions decline slightly this decade then flatten near 4.9 billion metric tons between 2030 and 2040, with renewables growing through 2030 before trajectories diverge and transport emissions falling only modestly.
• Congress’ One Big Beautiful Bill Act repeals key clean‑energy tax credits, putting more than half a trillion dollars in power and transport investments at risk, according to Rhodium.
• The EPA has proposed rescinding the 2009 endangerment finding and the DOE has issued a critique of mainstream climate science, moves that have prompted strong pushback from researchers.
• Early signals include a 1.4% rise in U.S. emissions in the first half of 2025 and industry setbacks such as stalled projects, nearly 65,000 clean‑energy jobs lost or paused, and sharp drops in solar installations and wind turbine orders.