Overview

• Independent analysts and The Senior Citizens League now estimate a 2.7% increase for 2026, following incremental monthly upgrades through August.
• A 2.7% COLA would add about $54 per month to the current average $2,007 retirement benefit, or roughly $648 over the year.
• Some projections call for an 11.6% jump in Medicare Part B premiums in 2026, about $21.50 more per month, potentially reducing much of the net gain.
• The Social Security Administration determines the COLA by comparing the CPI-W average for July to September with the same months a year earlier, with the figure to be announced in October.
• Critics say CPI-W understates older adults’ costs compared with CPI-E, as trustees continue to project that only about 81% of scheduled benefits may be payable by 2034 without new legislation.