Overview
- On July 21, major forecast models diverged with the U.S. run showing a large Saharan/Mediterranean heat dome that could push north around the month’s turn and the European run projecting a blocking low that would keep temperatures moderate.
- In the near term forecasts agree on a clear split across Germany with the northeast staying cooler and unsettled with highs around 17–21°C while the west and southwest will be drier, sunnier and near 25°C.
- A short-lived warm comeback is possible in the southwest on Friday and Saturday with highs of about 30–33°C but that outcome depends on whether the Mediterranean heat dome over Spain, where 40–45°C is expected, is advected north.
- The physical difference between the scenarios is predictable: the U.S. model needs a low near Portugal plus a strong high over eastern Europe to pump Saharan air north, while the European model keeps a persistent low between Iceland and Scandinavia that steers cool, unstable air into Central Europe.
- Forecasters say the pattern should become clearer in the next few days so residents, growers and authorities should watch updated model runs for changes to heat warnings, water stress risk and farming plans.