Overview
- IIF projects Mexico’s economy will grow 0.3% in 2025 and 0.9% in 2026, citing U.S. tariffs, USMCA renegotiation uncertainty, institutional fragility, slower remittances, limited fiscal space and infrastructure gaps.
- Cepal estimates Mexico’s GDP will expand 0.4% in 2025 and 1.3% in 2026, notes U.S. tariffs have dampened investment announcements and execution, and sees 2026 inflation near 3.5%.
- Mexico’s 2026 budget framework assumes 2.3% GDP growth and 3% inflation, standing in contrast to recent downgrades from the IMF, World Bank and other external forecasters.
- IIF expects Mexico’s foreign direct investment to average 2.5%–3% of GDP and warns persistent supply bottlenecks and weak infrastructure are restraining potential despite nearshoring opportunities.
- Argentina’s approved 2026 budget targets 10.1% inflation, which private economists call aspirational as many forecasts cluster around 15%–19.6% and highlight the need for strict fiscal and monetary discipline and a stable exchange-rate path.