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FOI Reveals Steeper Retirement Risks if UK Weakens State Pension Triple Lock Ahead of Budget

Fresh DWP modelling points to far larger shortfalls under weaker uprating, sharpening focus on choices the Chancellor will set out on 26 November.

Overview

  • Unpublished DWP scenarios obtained by Sir Steve Webb show 14.6 million workers face a sharp drop in living standards at retirement on current assumptions, rising to 19.0 million with an earnings link and 26.1 million with a price link.
  • Using Pensions UK’s minimum benchmark, those projected to fall short rise from 4.6 million to 6.0 million under an earnings link and to 11.7 million under an inflation link.
  • Reports indicate the Budget could seek roughly £2 billion by curbing salary‑sacrifice relief on workplace pensions, a move critics say would weaken saving incentives.
  • The DWP says it remains committed to the triple lock for the rest of this Parliament, responding to calls from charities and campaigners who warn that weakening it would deepen hardship.
  • IFS analysis warns frozen income tax thresholds mean the full new state pension is set to exceed the personal allowance in 2027–28, pulling many more pensioners into paying income tax.