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FOI Reveals Scale of UK Triple Lock Risks as Budget Nears

Unpublished DWP modelling shows cutting the pension guarantee would leave many more people falling short in retirement.

Overview

  • New FOI figures cited by Sir Steve Webb show 14.6 million working‑age people are on course for a sharp drop in living standards at retirement under current assumptions.
  • If uprating switched to earnings, the number facing such a drop would rise to 19.0 million, and to 26.1 million under a prices link.
  • On the Pensions UK minimum standard, a prices link would leave about 11.7 million below the threshold, roughly 7 million more than under the triple lock.
  • The OBR warns the triple lock poses a large fiscal risk, projecting pension spending to rise by about 1.6 percentage points of GDP over five decades, with annual costs now around £15.5 billion.
  • The government says it will keep the triple lock for this Parliament, as think‑tank researchers propose a ten‑year averaging reform and reports suggest the Budget could target pension tax perks such as salary sacrifice.