Focus Survey Puts Brazil's 2025 Inflation at 4.46%, Below Target Ceiling

Overview

• The market median for 2025 IPCA fell from 4.55% to 4.46% in the latest Central Bank Focus survey, marking the first sub‑4.5% projection this year.
• October IPCA rose 0.09%, the weakest October in 27 years, with the decline led by lower residential power tariffs.
• Inflation projections for 2026–2028 were unchanged at 4.20%, 3.80% and 3.50%, indicating stability beyond 2025.
• The expected Selic path held at 15.00% for end‑2025, 12.25% for 2026 and 10.50% for 2027, which analysts say is helping anchor inflation expectations.
• Other medians were steady, with 2025 GDP growth at 2.16% and the end‑2025 exchange rate edging to R$5.40 per US dollar.