Flávio Bolsonaro’s Bid Reorders Brazil’s Right as Tarcísio Signals São Paulo Re‑Election

Overview

• PT leaders are revisiting their São Paulo strategy and Lula’s vice choice after Flávio’s launch, debating Fernando Haddad versus Geraldo Alckmin and testing scenarios that could include Simone Tebet.
• Tebet is now open to transferring her electoral domicile to São Paulo and could seek the Senate or a spot on a state ticket, though MDB leaders in the state back Tarcísio and pose a hurdle under her current party banner.
• Deprived of major vote-pullers after Carla Zambelli’s ineligibility and detention in Italy and Eduardo Bolsonaro’s prolonged stay in the U.S., the PL in São Paulo plans to field city councilors and state deputies for 2026 congressional races.
• Genial/Quaest testing cited by party interlocutors places Flávio behind only Lula nationally and first among right-wing hopefuls, with second-round simulations showing a deficit of about 10 points.
• Tarcísio reiterates he will run for a second term and praises Flávio’s tone, while PL strategists look to a Flávio-led ticket to boost congressional candidates and pursue a larger caucus despite defections in the São Paulo roster.