Flávio Bolsonaro Turns 2026 Bid Into Bargaining Chip, Pushing Jan. 8 Amnesty

Overview

• Two days after launching his pre-candidacy with his father's blessing, the senator said his bid "has a price" and hinted that advancing a Jan. 8 amnesty is part of it.
• He urged congressional leaders to put the amnesty to a floor vote this week and said he will meet Monday with Antonio Rueda (União), Ciro Nogueira (PP), Valdemar Costa Neto and Rogério Marinho (PL), with an invitation to Marcos Pereira (Republicanos).
• Flávio said Tarcísio de Freitas reacted "very well" to the announcement and called the São Paulo governor the right’s "main" figure, even as Centrão parties remain skeptical and prefer Tarcísio as the 2026 standard-bearer.
• Fresh Datafolha polling conducted Dec. 2–4 shows Lula ahead of Flávio by about 15 points, with higher rejection for the Bolsonaro family than for governors such as Tarcísio, Ratinho Jr., Romeu Zema and Ronaldo Caiado.
• Markets fell after the pre-candidacy was unveiled, with Ibovespa down and the dollar higher, which Flávio dismissed as a "precipitated" read as he pitched a "more centered" Bolsonaro; Jair Bolsonaro remains jailed in Brasília on a 27-year sentence.