Flávio Bolsonaro Ties Possible 2026 Exit to Amnesty for Jair Bolsonaro as Centrão Holds Back

Overview

• Less than 48 hours after launching his bid, the senator said he may abandon the race and conditioned any withdrawal on Congress approving an amnesty for his father, who is serving 27 years and 3 months for an attempted coup.
• A new Datafolha survey shows only 8% see Flávio as the best name for Bolsonaro’s backing, compared with 22% for Michelle Bolsonaro and 20% for Governor Tarcísio de Freitas, and 50% say they would not vote for a Bolsonaro-endorsed candidate.
• Centrão figures signaled displeasure and are weighing neutrality in 2026, as Flávio schedules meetings with Valdemar Costa Neto, Ciro Nogueira, Antonio Rueda, Marcos Pereira, and PL Senate leader Rogério Marinho.
• Flávio says he expects an amnesty proposal to reach the congressional agenda this week and pressed chamber chiefs Hugo Motta and Davi Alcolumbre to honor earlier promises to schedule it.
• Markets turned lower after his launch, with the Bovespa down nearly 2% on Friday afternoon, which Flávio called a natural yet hasty reaction, and he plans to brief his father in prison after talks while praising Tarcísio as the right’s leading figure.