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last wk.

Flávio Bolsonaro Edges Lula to Force Oct. 25 Runoff

The first-round result shifts the electoral map toward the opposition and creates a two-week scramble for votes before the runoff.

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Seis institutos divulgaram pesquisas para presidente na véspera do primeiro turno.
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04/10/2026 ELEIÇÕES 2026 / LULA - O presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva vota na Escola Estadual Dr. João Firmino Correia de Araújo, em São Bernardo. Foto: Werther Santana/Estadão

Overview

  • Flávio Bolsonaro led the first round on Sunday, Oct. 4, winning roughly 56.1 million votes (about 47% of valid ballots) and advancing to a runoff against incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who took about 45%.
  • Official tallies show a geographic realignment: Flávio carried 14 states plus the Federal District while Lula won all nine Northeast states but with smaller margins than in 2022.
  • Partial counts of ballots cast abroad—87 of 186 foreign voting locations reported at the noted update—had Lula ahead in more cities (59) and Flávio leading in 28, highlighting varied diaspora patterns.
  • Pre-election polls largely underestimated Flávio’s strength: only the Gerp survey placed him ahead before voting and several major institutes showed Lula leading or a close race within margins of error.
  • Campaigns now face immediate tactical choices as they prepare for the Oct. 25 runoff, with analysts watching how Flávio will consolidate gains in the Southeast and how Lula will try to rebuild margins in weakened Northeast states.