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Florida’s Special Election Tightens in Historically Republican District

Democrat Josh Weil narrows the gap against Republican Randy Fine in a district Trump won by 30 points, raising questions about GOP momentum.

Florida Sen. Randy Fine stands for the pledge of allegiance during opening day of the Florida legislative session Tuesday, March 4, 2025, in Tallahassee, Florida.
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Josh Weil speaks during a campaign stop at the Silver Springs Shores Community Center on March 26, in Ocala, Florida.

Overview

  • The April 1 special election in Florida's Congressional District has become unexpectedly competitive, with Randy Fine holding only a 4-point lead over Josh Weil according to recent polling.
  • Weil has outraised Fine significantly, bringing in over $10 million compared to Fine’s less than $1 million, fueling a robust campaign effort in the deep-red district.
  • Early voting data suggests strong Democratic turnout, a potential factor in a district where Republicans hold a significant voter registration advantage.
  • Republican officials, including Governor Ron DeSantis, have expressed concerns about Fine’s campaign performance and fundraising, though they still anticipate a GOP victory.
  • The race is being closely watched as a potential indicator of President Trump’s influence and the broader political landscape ahead of the 2026 midterms.