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4w ago

Florida's Deep-Red District Faces Unexpectedly Tight Special Election

Democrat Josh Weil's fundraising dominance and strong early turnout challenge GOP confidence in a district Trump won by 30 points.

A sign for Democrat Gay Valimont is displayed outside the Escambia County Democratic Party office in Pensacola, Fla. on March 18, 2025. (AP Photo/Kate Payne)
Escambia County Democratic Party Chair Derrick Scott works at the party's office in Pensacola, Fla. on March 18, 2025. (AP Photo/Kate Payne)
Elon Musk looks on during a Cabinet Meeting in the Cabinet Room of the White House March 24, 2025 in Washington, DC.
Democratic candidate Gay Valimont poses for a selfie with supporter Selina Vickers outside Valimont's campaign office in Pensacola, Fla. on March 17, 2025. (AP Photo/Kate Payne)

Overview

  • Josh Weil, the Democratic candidate, has raised nearly $10 million, vastly outpacing Republican Randy Fine's approximately $1 million in campaign funds.
  • Republican leaders, including Governor Ron DeSantis, acknowledge Fine is underperforming and expect the race to be much closer than past Republican victories in the district.
  • Early voting data indicates strong Democratic turnout, suggesting potential shifts in voter engagement within this traditionally Republican stronghold.
  • The race is being closely watched as a measure of voter sentiment toward Trump-endorsed candidates and GOP policies ahead of the 2026 midterms.
  • National attention has grown, with outside groups, including Elon Musk's super PAC, making late contributions to support Fine's campaign.