Overview

• The National Hurricane Center has maintained a 20% probability that a broad low-pressure area off the southeastern U.S. coast will develop into a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.
• Regardless of its development, forecasters warn of heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding across Florida and the northern Gulf Coast beginning midweek.
• Marginal environmental conditions, including wind shear over the Caribbean and Saharan dust over the Atlantic, have suppressed early-season storm activity.
• If the disturbance organizes, it could gradually strengthen as it tracks westward across the Florida peninsula into the eastern Gulf of Mexico by late next week.
• Seasonal outlooks from NOAA and Colorado State University continue to project a moderately active 2025 Atlantic hurricane season with roughly 13–19 named storms.