Overview

• The National Hurricane Center assigns the disturbance off Florida a 20% probability of becoming a tropical cyclone within seven days.
• Forecast models track the low-pressure area moving westward over the Florida peninsula and into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico by midweek.
• Regardless of tropical development, heavy showers could produce localized flash flooding in parts of Florida and along the north-central Gulf coast.
• Forecasters say marginally favorable environmental conditions could support gradual organization later this week, potentially yielding Tropical Storm Dexter.
• NOAA’s preseason outlook projected 13 to 19 named storms for 2025, and Colorado State University researchers recently trimmed those activity expectations.