Overview

• In early August, FLNKS held an extraordinary congress that confirmed its refusal to sign the July Bougival accord, isolating the main pro-independence coalition.
• Other local parties ratified the accord in mid-July, but growing influence of radical elements within FLNKS has fractured the independence bloc’s unity.
• Manuel Valls is due in Nouméa this week to convene a drafting committee and press all sides to revive or revise the stalled agreement.
• Key pro-independence groups Palika and UPM have stayed in the accord, widening the rift with FLNKS and undermining the deal’s broad legitimacy.
• Observers warn that the impasse, combined with a €1 billion French aid package tied to stringent fiscal and social reforms, increases the risk of fresh unrest.