Overview
- FlightAware sued Kalshi over bets settled on flight delays and cancellations that used FlightAware’s data and logo, then withdrew the complaint one day after filing, which observers say points to a private deal.
- The case began after Kalshi expanded bets from three airports in 2022 to cover all U.S. airports in July 2026 and publicly linked outcomes to FlightAware’s published data and branding.
- Kalshi removed explicit FlightAware logos from its site, still links to a primary data source, and says its trading rules let it settle at a ‘‘last fair price’’ if there are unlawful or safety-related disruptions.
- Regulatory pressure remains: the CFTC ordered Kalshi to keep serving New York customers under emergency authority, and several states plus industry groups and airlines have threatened enforcement over gambling, consumer-protection, and safety concerns.
- The dispute highlights a wider issue for prediction markets: using real-world operational data for wagers can create incentives to manipulate events, risk breaching third-party data licenses, and strain data providers’ ties with airlines.