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Flavio Bolsonaro Launches 2026 Bid, Signals He Could Exit if Jair Bolsonaro Is Freed

He is using his campaign as leverage for Jair Bolsonaro's release, rattling investors.

Overview

  • The senator confirmed Friday that he will run with his jailed father's endorsement, upending expectations on the Brazilian right.
  • On Sunday he said he has a "price" to drop out and is willing to negotiate, tying any withdrawal to moves that free or amnesty Jair Bolsonaro, with more details promised in a Monday meeting with conservative leaders.
  • Brazilian assets fell after the announcement, with the real weakening as much as 3.1%, the Ibovespa sliding up to 4.2%, and some swap contracts jumping more than 50 basis points.
  • Conservative elites had favored São Paulo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas as a market-friendly option; Flavio claims Tarcisio supports him, though the camp remains unsettled.
  • Michelle Bolsonaro publicly backed Flavio, while Jair Bolsonaro remains in custody serving a 27-year sentence and is barred from holding office.