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Flash PMIs Show Sharp Global Divergence as India Hits Record and U.S. Manufacturing Rebounds

Tariff-driven cost pressures resurfaced to cloud prospects for rate cuts.

People work at Saitex's factory, which experiments with new robots to cut the cost of making blue jeans, in Los Angeles, California, U.S. September 21, 2022. REUTERS/Timothy Aeppel/File Photo
A worker grinds a metal gate inside a household furniture manufacturing factory in Ahmedabad, India, July 1, 2016. REUTERS/Amit Dave/ File Photo
A general view of a production line of German car manufacturer Mercedes-Benz at a factory, in Rastatt, Germany, June 4, 2025.  REUTERS/Christoph Steitz/File Photo
Toyota Yaris Cross and Yaris 4 cars are pictured on the assembly line at the Toyota Motor Manufacturing France (TMMF) plant in Onnaing near Valenciennes, France, April 4, 2024. REUTERS/Benoit Tessier/ File Photo

Overview

  • India’s HSBC flash Composite PMI jumped to a survey-record 65.2, with services at 65.6 and manufacturing at 59.8, as firms raised charges at the fastest pace in over 12 years and hiring accelerated, reinforcing expectations for a restrictive RBI stance.
  • U.S. business activity rose to a composite 55.4 with manufacturing at 53.3, the strongest since May 2022, as companies cited President Donald Trump’s tariffs for the steepest input and selling price increases in years alongside firmer employment.
  • Euro zone activity reached a 15‑month high at 51.1, driven by a manufacturing PMI of 50.5 led by Germany’s output surge to 52.6, while France’s composite improved to 49.8 with tentative signs of stabilization and services-led cost pressures picking up.
  • The UK’s composite PMI climbed to 53.0, a one‑year high on stronger services at 53.6, but manufacturing fell to 47.3 with ongoing payroll cuts and quicker price increases that complicate the Bank of England’s easing path.
  • Japan’s manufacturing PMI remained below 50 at 49.9 as foreign orders fell at the fastest pace in 17 months and official data showed July exports had their steepest drop since February 2021, underscoring fragile external demand.