Flash Flooding Risk and Severe Gusts Target Multiple U.S. Regions Tonight

Overview

• Late Monday night WPC and SPC mesoscale products flagged evolving, regionally focused hazards across the country with targeted discussions for central Colorado, northern and eastern Lower Michigan, southeast Arizona/southwest New Mexico, and parts of the central High Plains.
• Central Colorado is forecast to see convective rain rates of about 1–1.25 inches per hour with isolated totals near 1.5 inches that could produce focused flash flooding, especially over the San Juan range and Front Range foothills.
• Northern and eastern Lower Michigan have thunderstorms producing 1.5–2 inches per hour with training storms that may yield 2–3.5 inch totals and localized flash flooding in low‑lying and urban areas.
• Across the central High Plains from western/central Nebraska into northwest Kansas, near‑record low‑level moisture and very large instability (MLCAPE 3000–5000 J/kg) create potential for strong to locally severe gusts of 55–70 mph and isolated hail with an assessed watch probability near 20 percent.
• Forecast uncertainty on exact storm placement means impacts will be short‑term and localized so local NWS forecast offices and River Forecast Centers advise close radar and warning monitoring for rapid rises on creeks, saturated small basins, burn scars, and urban flood points.