Overview

• Weather Prediction Center MPD 1140 warns that expanding storm clusters this afternoon will likely produce scattered to numerous flash floods across central to southeast Arizona and into southwest New Mexico, with locally life-threatening impacts possible.
• Forecasters expect rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour and localized totals of 2 to 4 inches by late afternoon where storms train or backbuild.
• The Storm Prediction Center’s MD 2131 highlights a growing risk for large hail and damaging winds across southern Arizona, with an 80% probability that a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be issued.
• Earlier activity produced 1 to 1.75 inch hail, and the environment features MLCAPE roughly 1000–2500 J/kg and low-level moisture flux 2–3 standard deviations above normal supporting efficient heavy rainfall and severe potential.
• Urban corridors including Phoenix, Tucson and Safford, along with arroyos and burn scars, face heightened flash-flood risk, and residents should monitor local NWS, WPC and SPC updates.