Overview

• Showers and thunderstorms are expanding over central and southern Arizona, with 1 inch per hour or higher rates likely and flash flooding expected in the Phoenix area and along the Mogollon Rim this morning.
• Overnight storms produced locally significant flash flooding around Las Vegas, where training cells delivered roughly 0.5 to 0.75 inch per hour despite fast storm motions.
• Northwestern Arizona and southern Utah experienced brief early-morning training, with the localized flood threat expected to end by 09–10Z as cooler, drier air arrives.
• Remnant moisture from Raymond is supporting training near El Paso, where urban flash flooding is possible if rain rates exceed 0.5 inch per hour and persist.
• Forecasters report precipitable water values 3 to 5 standard deviations above normal in parts of the Southwest, boosting rainfall efficiency over urban corridors, slot canyons, washes and burn scars.