Overview

• The Weather Prediction Center says isolated flash flooding is possible through early evening across southeastern Arizona into western and central New Mexico, with hourly rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0 inches and isolated storm totals near 2 inches.
• Moisture remains highly anomalous, with precipitable water running roughly 3 to 4 standard deviations above normal and a Tucson sounding measuring 1.66 inches, well above mid-October climatology.
• Instability of roughly 500 to 1500 J/kg where heating occurs, combined with a strengthening upper-jet right-entrance region, supports robust updrafts and efficient rainfall production.
• West-southwesterly flow and low-level confluence continue to favor repeating cells and brief training, raising flood risk in slot canyons, burn scars, washes and other sensitive terrain.
• Overnight into early Saturday, scattered storms produced 0.5 to 0.75 inch per hour rates and localized flash flooding near Las Vegas, following Friday activity that also brought 0.5 to 1.5 inch hourly rates and a limited hail and wind risk noted by SPC without watch issuance.