Overview

• WPC warns this evening’s convective clusters across central and southern New Mexico and southwest Texas are likely to produce 1–2 inch per hour rates with localized 2–4+ inch totals and scattered flash flooding.
• The most sensitive areas include recent burn scars and normally dry washes from the Sacramento Mountains and Ruidoso downstream into parts of southwest Texas, where organized cells and mergers are ongoing.
• Elsewhere in the Southwest today, storms from northern and western Arizona into southern Nevada, southern Utah and eastern California are capable of heavy rain with isolated flash flooding under the lifting upper low.
• On Friday, the SPC issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch 621 for central and southern Arizona, and multiple storms produced large hail and strong outflow winds in the watch area.
• By Friday night the SPC reported the severe hail and wind threat in south-central Arizona was waning, as WPC discussions on Saturday highlighted training bands with 3–5 inches possible and significant urban flood potential around Norfolk and Virginia Beach.