Overview

• Weather Prediction Center guidance says concentrated heavy rain will move from northeast Arkansas into western Tennessee overnight, with scattered flash flooding likely in urban areas such as Memphis and Dyersburg and localized totals reaching 3 to 5+ inches.
• Reinvigorated training bands from southeast Louisiana into southern Mississippi and coastal Alabama are producing 2 to 2.5 inch per hour rates with localized 2 to 4 inch totals, keeping a localized flash‑flood risk into the evening.
• On Florida’s east coast, back‑building bands along the Space Coast and into the Gold Coast are yielding highly efficient downpours of 2 to 3 inches per hour and localized totals of 3 to 5 inches (up to 4 inches in South Florida), posing urban flooding concerns.
• Earlier in the day, radar showed two tornado debris signatures with transient supercell characteristics over southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi, and SPC now assesses the tornado threat as diminishing as the low‑level jet weakens.
• Across parts of the central and northern Plains, isolated severe hail and damaging wind remain possible from northeast Colorado and southeast Wyoming into Kansas and far southeast Nebraska, though forecasters consider watch issuance unlikely in most areas.