Overview

• WPC says flash flooding is likely overnight in portions of central and southern California as strong onshore flow produces 0.5 to 1 inch per hour rates, with the heaviest activity shifting toward the Transverse Ranges by early morning.
• Around the Bay Area and into parts of the Central Valley, linearly organized bands have supported rates near 1 inch per hour and localized 2 to 3 inch totals, prompting urban flooding concerns and isolated debris flows on burn scars.
• Across central and eastern Arizona into western and central New Mexico and southwest Colorado, thunderstorms continue to deliver locally high rates up to around 1.5 inches per hour with 2 to 3 inches possible where cells train, supporting isolated to scattered flash flooding.
• SPC notes a low severe risk in central Arizona with sporadic hail or damaging gusts possible, and a watch remains unlikely with a 5% probability.
• Earlier heavy rain along the South Carolina–North Carolina border produced 1.5 to 2.5 inches per hour and 3 to 6 inches in several hours, with forecasters having expected gradual improvement there as the coastal low weakened.