Flash Flood Threat Intensifies Across Lower Mississippi Valley as Evening Tornado Watch Likely

Overview

• Weather Prediction Center guidance flags flash flooding as likely from south‑central Louisiana into southern Mississippi and western to central Alabama through early evening, with 2–4 inches common and locally higher totals possible.
• Rain bands have remained nearly stationary for several hours along rain‑cooled outflow and a 925–850 mb convergence axis, focusing repeated cells and short‑term training.
• Hourly rainfall rates of 2–3 inches are occurring within a rich Gulf moisture plume with precipitable water near 1.7–1.8 inches and surface‑based instability of roughly 500–1500 J/kg.
• The Storm Prediction Center expects the severe threat to increase later today across parts of LA/MS/AL, with isolated tornadoes and damaging winds possible and a Tornado Watch likely this evening.
• Earlier brief tornado and severe‑wind potential across LA/MS eased this morning even as the broader event transitioned east from Thursday’s Plains squall line that produced an 81 mph gust near Independence, Kansas.